今天分享這篇討論台日關係的論文,述及中國關注日本近期的轉變:公然強化台日關係,不再如過去謹慎的不挑戰中國這種變化!
也觸及台日關係深化的政策,將因為日本缺乏「制度化」的機制凝結,隱含了變數!
因為文長,結錄的部分之外,推薦大家全文閱讀:
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中國擔心台灣因疫苗越來越傾向日本
Taiwan grows ever closer to Japan over vaccines, China fears
(Nikkei Asia https://reurl.cc/rgNApN)
自2016對北京持懷疑態度的蔡英文當選以來,日台關係蓬勃發展
Ties have blossomed since 2016 election of Beijing-skeptic Tsai
六月初台灣因首次COVID-19疫情嚴重爆發而努力採購疫苗之際,日本救援空運124萬劑疫苗,島內疫苗數量瞬間倍增。台灣官員沒有遮掩對日深切的感激,包含正副總統推特都以日文發文表示感謝。
上週五,台灣和日本走得更近了,雙方執政黨舉行有史以來首次聯合安全對談,甚至進一步"可能更高級別的"會談即將發生。
日本正在為台灣發聲,同時他也在對抗來自北京的壓力。 6月下旬,在中國的威脅逐漸升溫下,防衛副大臣中山康英呼籲世界“保護台灣作為一個民主國家”。 7月,日本副首相麻生太郎表示"東京可能會與美國一同保衛台灣,若中國的入侵被解讀為威脅到日本的生存"。
這是東京立場的戲劇性轉變,幾十年來,東京一直避免挑戰北京,掛念中國對日本經濟的重要性。雖然可說中國是日台共同敵人,但這並非日台關係密切的唯一因素。
2011年日本東北大震災,日方非常感謝台灣的捐款。另一因素是2012年安倍晉三二度成為日本首相,與前任日本民主黨政府相比,安倍對中立場較為強硬。
不僅政治上關係變得越來越穩固,經濟上,台灣台積電正計畫在日本設立第一家晶片製造廠。另外,當中國二月份突然中止進口台灣鳳梨,日本則增加台灣鳳梨進口並取代中國成為台灣鳳梨最大海外市場。
當然,不能保證友好關係會牢固不變。台灣觀察人士擔心日本首相菅義偉民調持續下滑,若11月下議院選舉後出現新首相,可能會減弱對台支持。另一潛在威脅則是台灣2024總統大選。
如果2024國民黨贏得總統選舉的勝利,由於國民黨被強烈的仇日情緒綁架,將可能是台日關係的變數;另外,如果日本未來新的首相,缺乏堅強的權力基礎,也會是中國發揮影響力的變數。
學者認為,這是因為日本缺乏「制度化」的架構定義台日關係的緣故!
同時也有10000部Youtube影片,追蹤數超過2,910的網紅コバにゃんチャンネル,也在其Youtube影片中提到,...
「2012 japan election」的推薦目錄:
- 關於2012 japan election 在 管碧玲 (kuanbiling) Facebook 的最讚貼文
- 關於2012 japan election 在 林昶佐 Freddy Lim Facebook 的最佳貼文
- 關於2012 japan election 在 文茜的世界周報 Sisy's World News Facebook 的精選貼文
- 關於2012 japan election 在 コバにゃんチャンネル Youtube 的最讚貼文
- 關於2012 japan election 在 大象中醫 Youtube 的最讚貼文
- 關於2012 japan election 在 大象中醫 Youtube 的最讚貼文
- 關於2012 japan election 在 General election to be held in Japan after dissolution of ... 的評價
2012 japan election 在 林昶佐 Freddy Lim Facebook 的最佳貼文
【台美日共同守護印太安全】
美國、日本、台灣三國智庫共同主辦「2020台美日三邊印太安全對話」,包括蔡英文總統、美國前國務院助卿坎博(Kurt Campbell)、前國防部印太安全助理部長薛瑞福(Randall Schriver)、日本前駐美大使佐佐木賢一郎等重要人士都與會。
我也參與三國國會議員的對談,與羅致政委員、陳以信委員、美國聯邦眾議員貝拉(Ami Bera)以及日本眾議員鈴木馨祐,交流2020後的印太及台海情勢與願景。
結果準備厚厚一疊的英文講稿幾乎沒派上用場,講太HIGH不小心就脫稿演出....。無論如何還是提供原本的講稿跟大家參詳,一起來練習英文吧:
2020 Taiwan-US-Japan Trilateral Indo-Pacific Security Dialogue
Hello moderator, fellow panelists, I am Taiwan legislator Freddy Lim.
This year, due to the pandemic, we can only conduct this panel online. I’m still very glad to be invited to attend this event and exchange ideas with these great panelists. Here I want to share my views on today’s main topic: “Challenges and Opportunities in the Indo-Pacific Region and the Taiwan Strait in 2020 & Beyond”.
First I want to start with the conventional positioning of Taiwan under the established international order.
After WWII, the international order led by the allies dragged Taiwan into China’s civil war. Since then, Taiwan's been struggling with the “One China” dispute, unable to gain independence and world recognition like many other colonies.
Even though Taiwanese people have built an independent and democratic country after half a century of hard work, now we enjoy freedom and human rights, the international community still isolates Taiwan. One of the main reasons is obviously China.
The established international community viewed China as a huge economic opportunity, a partner that would eventually carry out political reforms and be integrated into modern international order. Under this conventional thinking, the international community is willing to help China ease and suppress many of its unpleasant problems, including the thorny "Democratic Taiwan."
This has reduced Taiwan to merely China’s “Taiwan Problem”. We’re even slandered as the “troublemaker” of the Taiwan Strait; As a result, the respect that Taiwan deserves continues to be shelved, and the active role we can play, the contributions we can make in the international community are also ignored.
However, this established international structure is now changing.
After decades of appeasement policy, and acquiring WTO membership in 2001, China’s various structural changes that the world anticipated have never taken place. On the contrary, China’s been using organized measures, such as bribing, infiltration, and hybrid-warfare, to undermine international norms. It’s worked hard to manipulate and control international organizations, in order to project its influence onto the world. These actions have been even more distinct after Xi Jinping became President of China in 2012.
Internationally, China implemented debt-trap diplomacy on many countries through the Belt and Road Initiative. It established Confucius Institutes around the world, which are basically intelligence operations in the name of culture. Chinese tech giant, Huawei also aids China’s international surveillance. Not to mention China’s relentless expansion in the South China Sea, building military bases, creating man-made islands. This year, it’s even more serious. We witnessed the long time Chinese infiltration into UN organizations. The favoritism towards China helped its cover-up, which led to the dysfunction of WHO, ultimately causing the COVID-19 global pandemic.
Domestically, the Chinese government not only failed to implement any political reforms, but it also created the “Social Credit” system with advanced technology, to surveil and control its own people; In addition, the Chinese government built the notorious “Reeducation Camps” - concentration camps in reality, in Tibet, Xingjian, where human rights conditions were already in a bad shape. Even the Hong Kong people, who were supposed to be protected by the promise of “One Country, Two Systems”, their freedom and human rights were completely destroyed by the Chinese government.
These compelling examples show that there is some serious fallacy in the conventional way of viewing China. All facts point to this: Taiwan is not the problem. China is the problem. China is the troublemaker of the Taiwan Strait. It’s the troublemaker of the Indo-Pacific region. It’s even the troublemaker of the entire world.
Under decades of collective misjudgement, China was allowed to become the most terrifying, largest digital authoritarian government in human history. It’s a new form of dictatorship. As a response, many countries have vastly changed their China policy in recent years, thus the change of international structure.
This brings me to my next point: Give Taiwan the status it deserves. Let us contribute to the international society.
In a new international structure, Taiwan shouldn’t be categorized as “China’s Taiwan Problem”. Instead, we should be one of the key countries for international cooperation, responding to the new type of dictatorship.
Taiwan has faced authoritarian China on the front line for decades. Many countries are now facing the problem of China's infiltration under its United Front programs. Taiwan started dealing with the same problems 10 to 20 years ago. We have gained a lot of experience to contribute to the international community.
Taking the COVID pandemic as an example, Taiwan has studied and analyzed the actual situation and the information provided by the Chinese government with a serious and high-vigilance attitude. Based on our experience and lessons learned from the China SARS epidemic in 2001, we decisively formed a series of epidemic preventive measures. We have handled the crisis with the principle of openness and transparency. Our people have been self-disciplined and willing to cooperate. All of this demonstrates the high level of democracy in Taiwan’s society.
After the domestic epidemic was brought under control, Taiwan has continued to share our epidemic prevention supplies and the experiences on forming epidemic prevention policies with the world.
Although Taiwan was suppressed, even excluded by China in various international organizations in the past, we’ve been doing our best to comply with the norms & regulations of international organizations. We always actively contribute every time we have the opportunity. What I want to say is, all of this proves Taiwan could be a reliable partner in the international community. We are capable of working with other countries to solve major problems. We deserve our seats and participation in international organizations.
Regarding the impact of U.S. change of administration.
Now the U. S. presidential election is over and the administration is currently under transition. Many countries, including Taiwan, are concerned about whether the new U.S. government will change its course on foreign policy, especially its China policy. However, the "Rebalance (of Asia-Pacific Region)" proposed by the Obama administration in 2011, was in fact already a strategic adjustment in response to the rise of China and possible subsequent expansion.
The Trump administration further proposed the Indo-Pacific strategy in 2017 to promote and uphold international law and regulations, aiming to ensure every country has the liberty to be free from oppression and coercion. I believe that both parties in the U.S. understand the root cause of the Indo-Pacific regional problem comes from the Chinese government. Even for the Biden administration, it will have to provide practical responses. Facing the new structure, they can’t just go back to the traditional thinking of the last century.
As for Taiwan, the pro-Taiwan acts in the U.S., such as the Asia Reassurance Initiative Act of 2018, Taiwan Travel Act, Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement, were passed with strong consensus between the Republicans and the Democrats. I believe Taiwan could be a key partner to the international community and play an active role in the free world. This isn’t just the consensus of the two parties in the U.S., but will be the consensus of all democratic countries.
In a progressive aspect, the International community can benefit from a wider recognition of Taiwan.
In recent years, the performance of Taiwanese society in terms of epidemic prevention performance, human rights, gender equality, marriage equality, and open government are actually in line with many progressive ideas and visions. The ideas and visions that many democratic countries have long supported. Therefore, I’m quite optimistic that, after 2020, Taiwan can make even greater progress, on multiple levels and in broader aspects, contributing to the international community.
Finally, I want to emphasize again that to truly resolve regional problems, we need dynamic multilateral cooperation. But this must not be a return to the conventional thinking of the past century, which was "expecting" China to abide by the international order. The outdated thinking had been proved to be a failure. Otherwise there wouldn’t be a series of Chinese infiltration and aggression after its rise in recent years, which became one of the most difficult issues in the world. I believe after 2020, U.S., Japan, and Taiwan can establish a new model of international cooperation through deeper collaboration and communication. And hopefully, this model will maximize the security of the Indo-Pacific region and promote peace, stability and development in the region.
This concludes my speech, thank you all for listening.
Lastly, I’d like to express my gratitude to the moderators, my fellow panelists, and the organizers of this event.
I wish everyone peace and good health. Thank you.
2012 japan election 在 文茜的世界周報 Sisy's World News Facebook 的精選貼文
0725紐約時報
*【冠狀病毒實時更新】
#裴洛西排除了600美元失業救濟金延長的可能性,並促更廣泛的援助。裴洛西再次拒絕了原定於下週通過短期延長額外失業救濟金的預期,抨擊共和黨未能提出更廣泛的大流行性救助計劃,其中包括繼續每週提供600美元的提振。。
# CDC關於學校的新聲明要求重新開放並輕描淡寫潛在的健康風險。
#在美國,許多病毒源都可以追溯到與學校有關的事件或青少年聚會。
# 聯邦緊急事務管理局FEMA一直在向療養院發送故障設備。
#成千上萬的年輕以色列人正在抗議納坦雅胡對這種病毒的處理。
#法國總理Jean Castex宣布,來自16個國家的旅客抵達法國將必須出示近期的病毒測試或在抵達時接受測試。據法國媒體稱,受到這一新措施影響的國家包括美國,土耳其,印度,以色列和巴西,其中一些已經被歐盟禁止進入歐盟。
#哥斯達黎加當局說,有近300名尼加拉瓜人被困在與哥斯達黎加的邊境上,但拒絕他們入境,除非他們能提出冠狀病毒陰性檢測證明。
#作為周五達成的遏制病毒傳播的新措施的一部分,德國將為從海外歸國的公民提供免費檢測。
#最高法院駁回了內華達州教會對關閉限制提出的質疑。
#網上上課的新入學國際學生將不允許進入美國。新的指南給已經在美國學習的國際學生和秋季將要來的國際學生之間劃了一條嚴酷的界限。
#川普發現,“被現實所劫持”,並不能阻止這種大流行。
#南德州邊境地區的一個農村貧困縣,病案已經超過當地唯一一家醫院所能處理的危機模式,因此他們成立了道德委員會,來確定哪些患者應接受治療,哪些患者只能送回家等死。
#隨著案件的增加,密西西比州限制聚會,紐奧良禁止外帶雞尾酒。
#麥當勞宣布,要求顧客在8月1日起在其美國餐廳內戴口罩。
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/24/world/coronavirus-covid-19.html
*【川普發現,不能阻止冠毒大流行】
一位曾經聲稱“大流行最嚴重的日子已經過去了”的總統現在承認,該流行病已席捲全國大部分地區,並將“在變得更好之前變得更糟”。
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/24/us/politics/coronavirus-trump-denial.html
*【建立疫情防護網,非營利組織只能靠自己】
為控制冠狀病毒大流行,基督教青年會為許多脆弱的美國人提供了生命線。但隨著健康危機及其收入減少,有數百家個機構也被迫要關門,員工面臨失業,卻沒有人能向他們伸出援手。
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/24/business/economy/nonprofits-coronavirus-economy.html
*【疾病預防控制中心呼籲學校重新開放,輕視健康風險】
全國最大的公共衛生機構發出了全面呼籲,要求學校重新開放,這與川普總統對社區的壓力相吻合,列出了入學的許多好處,卻對潛在的風險輕描淡寫。
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/24/health/cdc-schools-coronavirus.html
*【中國對美政策的困境:如何保持強硬但避免“分手” 】
兩周前,中國外交部長王毅曾呼籲美國在兩國關係問題上懸崖勒馬,尋找合作途徑。沒過幾天,他在與俄羅斯外長通電話時抱怨說,美國“已經失去了理智、道德和信用”。問題現在是,中國在這方面能做什麼。川普政府對中國的廣泛攻擊,幾乎沒給中國領導人留下多少不會威脅讓兩國關係徹底破裂的選項。在中國正與印度、英國、加拿大、澳洲等許多其他國家發生衝突的時候,如果中美關係徹底破裂,北京可能會更加孤立,已受新冠病毒大流行及其全球後果影響的中國經濟也可能遭受傷害。
https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20200724/us-china-consulate/
*【中國要求美國關閉駐成都總領事館】
中國週五宣佈,已命令美國關閉其在中國西南城市成都的總領事館,以此作為對川普政府要求關閉中國駐休士頓總領事館的報復。針鋒相對地關閉領事館是華盛頓與北京之間不斷惡化的關係的又一個轉捩點,也可能是迄今為止最嚴重的一次。雙方此前採取的行動包括發佈簽證限制、外交官旅行新規以及驅逐駐外記者。然而,通過關閉外國使領館,兩國似乎正在不可避免地走向更深的分歧。中國外交部稱此舉“是對美方無理行徑的正當和必要反應”,稱美國應對兩國關係的惡化負責,並敦促美國“立即撤銷”關閉休士頓總領事館的命令。
https://cn.nytimes.com/usa/20200724/china-us-consulate-chengdu/
*【美國警告俄羅斯,中國和伊朗正試圖干涉選舉】
警告來自美國國家情報和安全中心主任William R. Evanina在美國人進行民意調查100天前的一份聲明中。聲明說:“我們主要關注中國,俄羅斯和伊朗,儘管其他民族國家和非國家行為者也可能損害我們的選舉進程。”關於中國的警告是在北京和華盛頓之間出現異常緊張的時刻,就在幾天之後,美國起訴了兩名中國黑客,罪名是竊取知識產權,包括為該國主要情報部門竊取知識產權,並將中國外交官從休士頓領事館驅逐出境。
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/24/us/politics/election-interference-russia-china-iran.html
*【泰國在致命撞車事故中撤銷對紅牛繼承人的所有指控】
能量飲料發明者的孫子Vorayuth Yoovidhaya於2012年在曼谷用他的車撞了一名警官後逃離了該國,八年後,最新是泰國警方在週五宣布撤銷對他其當年的指控。
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/24/world/asia/thailand-crash-red-bull-heir.html
*【香港示威活動案首開庭,一對夫婦被判無罪】
Elaine To和Ten Henry Tong經營一家體育用品店,該案法官說,當時他們在示威者和警察之間的衝突地點附近被捕,但無法證明他們參與。因此被判無罪,如果定罪,他們可能會被判入獄七年。另外還有一個少年也被無罪釋放。
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/24/world/asia/hong-kong-protests-newlyweds-rioting.html
*【香港日本日均近1000例冠状病毒感染,但卻拒絕限制令】
日本報告了近1,000例新感染病例,這是自大流行開始以來一天中最多的一次,全國各地都有病例在傳播。本月,在療養院,學校和東京劇院中發現了群聚感染。令人擔憂的是,越來越多的沒有可追踪的鏈接。
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/24/world/asia/japan-coronavirus.html
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